I went 5-6 against the spread last week, dropping me to one under .500 against the line for the season.
The good: picking Tennessee to cover at Pitt. The bad: picking Alabama to rout Texas. The ugly: picking A&M to thump App State.
Here are this week’s guesses.
(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)
Florida State (-3) at Louisville, Friday, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
The Seminoles had an off week to re-focus after a nice road win over LSU and get prepped to handle an even better runner than Jayden Daniels in Malik Cunningham. Expect FSU to give Louisville enough problems with Jared Verse and Co. getting a lot of pressure.
FSU 27, Louisville 24
Pick: Florida State -3
No. 1 Georgia (-24.5) at South Carolina, Noon (ESPN)
This is a big number for an SEC team to cover on the road. Spencer Rattler is off to a shaky start (2 TDs, 3 INTs). My hunch is that he’ll make a few plays and the Gamecocks’ defense will keep it kinda close.
Georgia 34, South Carolina 14
Pick: South Carolina +24.5
No. 6 Oklahoma (-10.5) at Nebraska, Noon (Fox)
I expect the Huskers to respond well to the coaching change. Mickey Joseph will bring a little more organization, and some of the pressure around the program will have been diffused. It wouldn’t shock me if the Huskers pulled the upset outright.
Oklahoma 35, Nebraska 34
Pick: Nebraska +10.5
No. 12 BYU at No. 25 Oregon (-3.5), 3:30 p.m. (Fox)
The Cougars looked good against Baylor and can handle a tough road environment. I think the Ducks are still working out the kinks and trying to find an identity.
BYU 35, Oregon 30
Pick: BYU +3.5
No. 22 Penn State (-3) at Auburn, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
The Tigers have enough athletes who can really run to slow down the Nittany Lions’ impressive stable of young backs, but I think defensive coordinator Manny Diaz and a good PSU secondary will cause a few big mistakes from Auburn quarterback T.J. Finley, who has one touchdown pass and three picks so far.
Penn State 20, Auburn 13
Pick: Penn State -3
Mississippi State (-2.5) at LSU, 6 p.m. (ESPN)
It’s unusual to see the Tigers as a home underdog against an unranked team, but here we are. I think Mississippi State has a more defined identity right now than LSU, and I expect Will Rogers to keep the Tigers on their heels. He’s playing with a ton of confidence right now.
Mississippi State 34, LSU 27
Pick: Mississippi State -2.5
Texas Tech at No. 16 NC State (-10), 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
I like what I’ve seen from young Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith so far, but NC State has a top-15 pass defense. I think the Wolfpack will give him some headaches in a tough road spot for the young QB.
NC State 31, Texas Tech 24
Pick: Texas Tech +10
No. 11 Michigan State at Washington (-3.5), 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
This feels like a coming-out party for Kalen DeBoer. He’s getting it going at Washington. Husky Stadium can get loud, and former Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is playing really well in this system. If the Huskies can protect him well enough, I think they win a close one against a very well-coached and well-balanced team.
Washington 24, Michigan State 23
Pick: Michigan State +3.5
This week’s upset special: SMU at Maryland (-3), 7:30 p.m. (FS1)
Tanner Mordecai looks good so far, and the Terps are a little banged up in the secondary. I think they’ll miss standout corner Tarheeb Still against the Mustangs a lot.
SMU 40, Maryland 35
Pick: SMU +3
(Photo: Stephen Brashear / USA Today)